Andy Burnham – The Next Prime Minister?
With Labour under pressure after a catastrophic set of election results, Andy Burnham has emerged as the clear favourite to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister.
Over 60 years ago, the then Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, coined the phrase “a week is a long time in politics” in relation to crises in Government at that time. The events of the week following the local elections have proved that Harold Wilson’s phrase is as true today as it was then.
A Week in Politics
We have witnessed Labour’s worst set of election results in memory, resulting in Labour losing by massive margins some of its safest councils in the country - and losing Wales.
The Prime Minister has recorded some of the worst poll ratings in history, with an approval rating currently of minus 46%. According to LabourList, 97 Labour MPs have called for the PM to go either now or to set a timetable for his resignation.
There have been ministerial resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips. Wes Streeting says he will stand in a contest for Labour’s leadership and supports the UK rejoining the EU.
A parliamentary by-election in Makerfield has been triggered to make way for Andy Burnham to stand, who in the last week has spelt out a new vision for Labour and a call for it to change direction. Andy Burnham is now the clear favourite to take over from Keir Starmer.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has vowed to continue, although many commentators believe that his authority has been so badly damaged that he will not lead Labour at the next election. Who would replace Keir Starmer as Leader of the Labour Party, and therefore as Prime Minister?
Favourite to Become the Next Labour Party Leader
By far the favourite to succeed Keir Starmer is Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester. In a recent YouGov poll among Party Members, he had a plus 41% rating compared with Keir Starmer on minus 3 and Wes Streeting on minus 9.
The same poll showed that among the electorate, Andy Burnham has a plus 4 rating at a time when all political leaders in Britain are unpopular with the electorate, with Starmer at minus 46, Badenoch at minus 17, Farage at minus 37 and Polanski at minus 27.
Andy Burnham was a highly rated adviser for the late former Cabinet member Tessa Jowell and an effective Minister and Cabinet Member. When he became MP for the Leigh Constituency, he was soon noticed by Prime Minister Tony Blair. After serving two years as a PPS, in 2005 Tony Blair gave him his first ministerial appointment in the Home Office before he was reshuffled and became Minister of State for Health.
In 2007 he became a member of Gordon Brown’s first Cabinet as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and was later reshuffled to Secretary of State for Media and Sport before becoming Health Secretary.
Following Labour’s election loss and Gordon Brown’s resignation in 2010, he stood for the Party’s leadership and finished fourth. The contest was won by Ed Miliband. Under his leadership, Andy Burnham served in various roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
When Labour lost in 2015 and Ed Miliband resigned, he stood again for the leadership of the Labour Party against Jeremy Corbyn, this time finishing second on 19%. It has to be recognised that the selectorate for the leadership contest was heavily influenced by people who had joined Labour to support Corbyn. Many of those who voted then are no longer in the Labour Party.
He served in Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Home Secretary before standing down in 2016 in order to stand for Mayor of Greater Manchester.
From Parliament to Greater Manchester Mayor
Andy Burnham was elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017, picking up 63% share of the vote. In 2021 he was re-elected with 67% and again in 2024 on 63%, demonstrating to many of his supporters that it was possible to be a leader and continue to be popular as a leader going into a third term.
As Mayor of Manchester, he has taken measures to improve transport systems, improve housing and tackle homelessness, protect children and promote education. He is keen on building new homes, particularly local authority homes for renting.
He has tirelessly campaigned for justice for the 97 Hillsborough disaster victims, resulting in justice for the victims.
Although he has been away from Westminster since 2017, he is undoubtedly one of Labour’s big players outside Westminster and has never been too far away from adding his opinion to the national debate.
In 2020, he supported Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party and publicly supported him through to the General Election 2024 and beyond.
But as Keir Starmer’s approval ratings continued to drop after the 2024 General Election “Loveless Landslide”, members, particularly on what is described as the “soft left” of the Labour Party, have viewed Andy Burnham as the Labour politician to take over after Keir Starmer.
This was borne out from Opinium polling in August 2025, which showed Keir Starmer with a minus 40% approval rating to Andy Burnham’s plus 10% approval rating.
Andy Burnham has over the last year expressed his opinions on what direction he would like to see this country go. These include considering a wealth tax, more public ownership particularly of the utilities, and proportional representation. He even expressed a view that he hoped the UK would eventually rejoin the EU.
Further polling data around the Labour Party conference in September 2025 indicated that Andy Burnham was far more popular than Keir Starmer and some accused him of attempting to mount a leadership debate, which was denied.
From Parliament Back to Westminster - Blocked
When former MP Andrew Gwynne resigned his Gorton and Denton constituency in Greater Manchester earlier this year, Andy Burnham, along with the backing of Labour’s Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, applied to the Labour Party’s ruling National Executive Committee to be allowed to stand. The NEC determined he could not.
He had been re-elected as Greater Manchester Mayor under two years ago and had served just over a year and a half of his term of office. Many on the soft left wing of Labour were bitterly disappointed by the decision. At that time, many on the right and centre of the Labour Party thought that if Andy Burnham stood, it could destabilise the Government and spark a leadership challenge.
Labour subsequently lost the “safe seat” of Gorton and Denton, which it had held since 1931. It lost to the Greens and finished third behind Reform. Many MPs, including Labour’s Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, believed it was a mistake not to allow Andy Burnham to stand, as he was in their view the only one in Labour who could have won the seat.
This result, coupled with more revelations about the Prime Minister’s handling of the Peter Mandelson appointment, further depressed the mood among Labour MPs and members that the Labour Party needed to consider changing its leader, whilst loyalists rallied round to support the Prime Minister.
With local elections looming in May, many of those who wanted to see Keir Starmer go decided that any moves should wait for the outcome of those elections before deciding what to do next.
Catastrophic Results for Labour
The local election results and the Welsh National Assembly results were, by all accounts, a disaster for the Labour Party, which found itself squeezed on the right by Reform in its traditional heartland areas and squeezed on its left by the Greens in its more middle-class areas and university towns. In Scotland and Wales, both Nationalists and Reform benefited from Labour.
The personal ratings of the Prime Minister continued to be worse than any other Prime Minister, and his leadership was an issue on the doorstep, resulting in more calls for him to set out a timetable to resign.
Given that Andy Burnham, according to all polling data, was seen as the most popular Labour politician in the country, and with other potential candidates such as Wes Streeting making his move, supporters of Andy Burnham decided to act.
A Way Back to Parliament Opened for Andy Burnham
In what can only be described as a very high-risk strategy, former Minister Josh Simons, the MP for Makerfield in Greater Manchester, called for a change of leader and resigned his seat, causing a parliamentary by-election with the intention of allowing Andy Burnham a route back into Parliament and applying pressure on Keir Starmer and the Party’s NEC to allow him to stand.
The NEC has reversed its decision from earlier this year, which has allowed Andy Burnham to stand in the by-election.
Makerfield By-Election
Makerfield is not one of the safest Labour seats in the country, with only a small majority of 5,399. That compares with Gorton and Denton, where the Labour Party were defending a majority of 13,413 and where Labour finished third. In the local elections this month, Reform swept Labour aside. 65% of voters in Makerfield voted to leave the EU in 2016, so this seat is very much on the radar of Reform, who hope to take the seat.
It should not be forgotten that Reform polled 31% in the 2024 General Election, which was well above the average of the proportion of votes it was taking across the UK, so it already has proof that Reform has a foothold in the constituency.
Polling data by Survation indicates that Labour has a nil chance of winning the seat without Andy Burnham. With Andy Burnham, the poll suggests that he has 45% to Reform’s 42%, which, allowing for margins of error, is too close to call, although they put Andy Burnham’s chances of winning at 67%.
Other factors come into play. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Party, which has recently been given approval by the Electoral Commission to stand in elections, will be fighting its first parliamentary by-election and will no doubt put resources into the campaign as an alternative populist right party to Reform. Local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd has been confirmed as its candidate.
Reform is standing Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, army reservist and newly elected local councillor. He was Reform’s candidate in the General Election in 2024, where he polled 31%, finishing in second place, and is well known in his community. Nigel Farage made a statement in support of his party saying “the plucky plumber taking on open borders Burnham”, stating that only Reform can beat Labour.
With Conservatives standing, although their candidate is yet to be announced, there will be a three-way split in the votes for right wing parties. Some in the Conservative Party have argued that they should stand aside for Reform, but that could send out the wrong message for many Conservatives and undermine their leader, Kemi Badenoch.
For Labour, the threat on the left is from the Greens, who will be hoping to build on their recent by-election success in Gorton and Denton, although it has been suggested that there are some internal differences of opinion in that the Greens running against Labour could split the anti-Reform vote.
Zak Polanski’s personal poll ratings have tumbled in the past month according to YouGov, where his approval rating has dropped from minus 11% to minus 27% after questions were raised about his remarks about the Police and his past roles. Some have speculated that it dented the Greens’ performance in the recent local elections as their performances did not quite meet expectations in some areas.
Dividing Lines - Burnham Versus Starmer
Andy Burnham has been confirmed as Labour’s candidate, and it will make for an interesting and tricky campaign. Although his candidature has been announced, there has so far been no endorsement from the Prime Minister, but no doubt there will be one. There are questions that many would like answers to. Is Andy Burnham standing on Labour’s official manifesto led by Keir Starmer or on what Andy Burnham believes should be Labour’s direction? What will he say about Keir Starmer and what Labour has done so far? Has the Government got things wrong?
Electors will also ask him what he would do that is different from Keir Starmer, or what was wrong with the Blair or Brown Governments which he served in if all Governments have gone in the wrong direction in the last 40 years.
On moving closer to Europe, Andy Burnham has already said last year that he would like us to rejoin the EU at some point but has now pledged not to rerun Brexit. On the economy, he has now said that he is committed to the Government’s fiscal rules, as there was fear in the fiscal markets that he would change them to cover extra defence spending. What is clear is that he will be under scrutiny throughout the by-election over what he says and stands for and where he differs from the Starmer Government.
If Andy Burnham wins the by-election it will open the opportunity for him to challenge Keir Starmer for the Party’s leadership, as he would have proved that he can beat Reform and the Greens and may claim that he was the only person who could achieve the win and that Starmer cannot.
That would be bad news for Keir Starmer, as many in the Labour Party are clearly concerned that without a change at the top, Labour is doomed for a crushing defeat at the next General Election. Andy Burnham would be seen as the person who can save Labour.
Leadership Contest?
Under Labour Party rules, MPs standing for the leadership require 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party to support them as well as nominations from local parties and affiliates. The members would ultimately decide from those nominated.
Current polling data shows that Andy Burnham, pitched against Keir Starmer or any of the other party candidates such as Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner, would win hands down.
But Labour politics, like with other parties, can be unpredictable, as the last week or so has demonstrated.
Also, the Labour Party is made up of a broad coalition of interests, and for any leader, they have to gain support from across a range of opinion within the party. Andy Burnham is definitely seen as the “soft left” candidate, but we all wait to see what his agenda will mean. He wants to change the direction of policy over the last 40 years and take the UK in a different direction. But what will this mean? We will wait and see.
Andy Burnham comes from a working-class background in the Northwest of England. Brought up as a Catholic, he went to local Catholic primary and secondary schools. He read English at Cambridge. He describes himself as brought up as a Catholic but not particularly religious. He is guided by Catholic Social Teaching. He is married with three children. Many would describe him as socially liberal and he supported same-sex marriage in 2013. He is keen on sport, as a lifelong Everton supporter and follower of Rugby League.
His background is one which will appeal to many traditional Labour supporters, and he has, particularly as Manchester Mayor, connected well with the electorate and the Labour base.
If Andy Burnham were to lose the Makerfield by-election it would, for him and for so many in the party, be a disaster. Some may view that a loss could spell disaster for Labour at the next General Election.
However, it may be seen by some that a loss may either benefit Wes Streeting’s leadership bid, cause other candidates to enter any future leadership race, or even allow Keir Starmer more time in the short to medium term to shore up his Government as he seems determined to carry on as long as he can.
In normal circumstances, a parliamentary by-election in a constituency where the Government is defending a small majority of 5,399 would be gained by an opposition party, so this by-election caused by the resignation of a Labour MP is very high risk indeed.
Labour, and particularly Andy Burnham, have gambled much on this by-election, making it one of the most interesting contests in recent political history. The stakes could not be higher, where winner takes all. It should not be forgotten that a Burnham win would spell a Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election, which in itself would be tricky for Labour to navigate following a poor set of local election results in May.
In the coming days and weeks, the political landscape could change even further depending upon the Makerfield by-election campaign and its result when it is known during the night and early hours of 18th and 19th June.
Yes, a week is a long time in politics and what happens next could make or break Andy Burnham’s bid to eventually lead the Labour Party and our country.
Key Takeaways
- Andy Burnham has emerged as the clear favourite to succeed Keir Starmer as Labour leader
- The Makerfield by-election could determine whether Burnham has a route back to Westminster
- Labour’s poor election results and the Prime Minister’s ratings have intensified leadership pressure
- Burnham’s popularity with members and the wider electorate makes him a major figure in any future contest
- A win in Makerfield could strengthen his claim to be the candidate capable of beating Reform and the Greens
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