Will 2026 politics be the most volatile yet?
With delayed elections, insurgent parties on the rise and unprecedented fragmentation in the vote, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable years in local politics for decades.
Few things can ever be taken for granted in electoral politics, but if anything is certain about what we might face in 2026… it is massive uncertainty!
What’s at stake?
The first uncertainty concerns exactly what might be up for grabs this year. We know the devolved Scottish and Welsh parliaments are guaranteed, as are the 32 London Boroughs and all but four of the country’s Metropolitan Boroughs. Beyond that, however, we must wait to find out what will happen in the 63 councils invited by central government to consider “postponing” their respective contests.
In theory we should be seeing around 5,000 seats being fought across 136 different councils, but so far 26 councils have indicated they want to delay their elections. You can make up your own mind whether these requests genuinely relate to the Local Government Reorganisation programme or are just a cowardly attempt from those currently in power to cling onto it…
The form guide
Elections in 2025 were unquestionably a triumph for Nigel Farage’s insurgent Reform UK party. In addition to the scheduled results on 1st May – gaining almost 700 seats, winning outright majorities on 10 councils and becoming the largest party on another four – since the 2024 General Election Reform has made 101 net gains in the near-weekly cycle of council by-elections. Significantly, all but two of these have come since Kemi Badenoch became Tory Leader in November 2024. This includes gains in every region across Britain – even in London and Scotland which have traditionally been tougher nuts for Farage-led parties to crack.
Away from real votes in real ballot boxes, Reform performed strongly in national voting intention polls for most of 2025, having now been in the lead in 201 consecutive polls since mid-April and been averaging around 30% in each month since the elections in May. The other party with strong recent growth in its poll scores is the Greens, but this is yet to translate into meaningful progress in real elections (only one net gain since May).
The Lib Dems, meanwhile, have continued to perform creditably well in by-elections despite floundering in the polls, while the Tories and Labour have struggled on both metrics.
What could happen?
If every scheduled election was to go ahead, then Labour would be defending the bulk of councils and almost half of the seats up for grabs (compared to around a quarter for the Tories). Our initial modelling suggested Reform could have hoped to gain just shy of 2,000 seats and around 20 councils, coming at the expense of both “major” parties – gaining ground from the Conservatives in the shire districts and from Labour in the so-called “red wall” areas in the West Midlands, North West and parts of Yorkshire.
Within London, Reform’s best prospects will largely be within the outer London “doughnut” – the likes of Havering, Bexley and Bromley are expected to be top targets, also with strong prospects for getting reasonable-sized groups of councillors in boroughs like Croydon, Sutton, Hounslow, Hillingdon and on a good night potentially Barnet. Barking & Dagenham is also a key borough to watch for Reform potential.
Meanwhile the Tories, who have had a pretty poor run in the last few sets of London Borough elections, will be looking to reverse recent losses to Labour like Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet.
The growth of the Greens throws another huge element of unpredictability into the mix – particularly in Labour’s inner-London traditional strongholds like Hackney, Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham as well as creating the prospect of a large number of genuine five-way splits in wards in any borough, meaning the percentage vote share required to win could be uncharacteristically small – creating more uncertainty and unexpected results in each and every direction!
What does it mean?
Any set of elections that delivers major churn in the composition and identity of those elected to office creates challenge and uncertainty of its own. New, inexperienced councillors may need a little time to get their feet under the table and learn how things work in their specific authority – many will have to learn very quickly indeed if changes in political control mean they are instantly thrust into the hotseat. New relationships must be built between councillors and officers – crucial if elected members want to genuinely get things done over and above political grandstanding in the chamber. And clients who have spent months and years closely engaging with councillors could find all that effort swept away by the power of the stubby pencil, and the future success of their projects now dependent on recreating those relationships with a whole new cohort of movers and shakers.
As ever, forewarned is forearmed – and fortunately, Terrapin can help! Our unrivalled network of political contacts across all the main parties means you’ll have access to the latest intelligence from campaigns on the ground, and our expert analysis of the latest polling and modelling means you’ll be in pole position to know what’s about to happen before a single vote is even cast!
Key Takeaways
- The scale and timing of 2026 local elections remain uncertain, with dozens of councils considering postponements
- Reform UK has emerged as a major electoral force, reshaping traditional voting patterns across the country
- Labour and the Conservatives face significant defensive challenges, particularly in key urban and shire areas
- The rise of smaller parties increases the likelihood of fragmented results and unexpected outcomes
- Political volatility will create both risks and opportunities for clients navigating planning and public affairs in 2026
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