Looking Ahead: London 2028 Mayoral Elections – All Change?

Sadiq Khan, a former Wandsworth councillor and MP for Tooting, was always seen as part of the soft left of the Labour Party and was appointed by the then Labour leader, Ed Miliband, as Shadow Lord Chancellor between 2010 and 2016.

Sadiq Khan threw his hat into the London Mayoral candidate’s ring in 2016. Boris Johnson had returned to Parliament. The Mayoralty was up for grabs. Labour’s Blairite wing wanted Tessa Jowell to be the candidate. But thanks to a flood of new left-wing leaning members joining the party, and the support of the former London Mayor, Ken Livingstone, Sadiq Khan won the Labour nomination.

His election victory was a major coup for the left in a Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn. Nationally, in the opinion polls, Labour was on 34% and the Conservatives on 36%. Sadiq Khan beat Conservative Zac Goldsmith by 55.2% to 44.8%, under the old transferable vote system. His campaign had focused on a soft left greener agenda with improvements to transport and higher congestion charges.

The 2020 election was delayed until 2021 due to Covid. Khan won again, bucking the party’s national ratings, although his first preference votes fell to 40%. The party nationally was polling 29%, with the Conservatives on 36%. His total vote was 5% higher than the total vote for Labour in the equivalent GLA elections.

Labour, now led by Sir Keir Starmer, was doing better in London compared with the rest of the UK. How much of it was to do with Khan or Labour changing direction is unclear. Either way, for Khan it was a great personal achievement.

The 2024 Mayoral Election was the last big electoral test before the General Election. Labour was ahead in the national opinion polls, but concerns over the extension of the ULEZ charge to Outer London proved a challenge.

The result was exactly what Labour wanted. Sadiq Khan was elected under the new first-past-the-post system and his vote of 43.8% mirrored what was to follow in Labour’s General Election victory only two months later. Again, he polled 5% better than Labour’s GLA result.

Two years is a long time ahead to predict the outcome of the next London Mayoral Election in 2028, and a lot can happen between now and then.

Following the disastrous 2026 local election results for Labour, with the party losing some of its traditional heartland councils and mayoral contests, Sadiq Khan may have to modify how he operates. Used to a borough system dominated by Labour, he will now have to juggle with council leaders from other parties seeking to pursue non-Labour agendas.

This may affect how Sadiq Khan will govern London, especially in fields such as planning, where Whitehall’s desire to “build, build, build” could bring pressure for City Hall to call in large schemes being opposed in boroughs run by rival parties.

As for his political future, will he stand for a record fourth term? In the May elections in London, the combined Labour and Conservative vote came to 45.6%, which was higher than other regions of England. But both parties’ share of the vote has fared notably worse than the Greens, London’s best performers.

If Sadiq Khan stands for a fourth term, there are both risks and opportunities for him.

The risks are great. The local elections proved that many London voters want change. It is not certain that he can outperform his own party’s fortunes. The left vote could be split with the Greens. It will be the Conservatives’ best chance to position themselves for the 2028/29 General Election. A dynamic opposition candidate in a five-to-six-way contest could win on a low percentage share of the vote.

However, the opportunities for Sadiq Khan may be significant. The incumbency factor and continuity candidate argument works in his favour. Mayoral elections often become a two-horse personality contest, lessening the effect of multi-party engagement.

He is a winner and has never polled below 40%. The first-past-the-post electoral system means that in a five-party system he can afford to significantly drop his share of the vote and still win. He may also be the best candidate against the Greens, given his soft left credentials.

Attacks on Sadiq Khan by the Conservatives, Reform, Restore, and even the White House, may help him secure a broad left and centre coalition.

The Labour Party might consider it too high a risk not to have Sadiq Khan as their candidate. A new candidate could open up the contest, working against Labour. This may bring pressure for him to stand again from the party’s hierarchy.

If he does, it is possible his candidature could turn the election into a more traditional contest between Labour and the Conservatives. Both performed better in London than their national share of the vote would suggest. This would bode well for both of the traditional two leading parties in the run-up to the next General Election.

But a lot can happen between now and then.